Top analyst predicts which 5G iPhone will be the most popular model this year

This coming Tuesday, Apple will virtually host its “Hi, Speed” event starting at 1 pm ET (10 am PT). Of course, we expect to see four new iPhone models introduced including the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 mini, the 6.1-inch iPhone 12, the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro, and the 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max. All four models will be powered by the 5nm A14 Bionic chip and the “Pro” units should include 6GB of memory and three rear cameras. 4GB of RAM and a pair of cameras will be featured on the other two units.

Kuo says that the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 model will be the most popular of the four different phones

Despite numerous leaks, we still aren’t completely sure about which models will get the LiDAR Time-of-Flight depth sensor. This feature measures the time it takes for light beams to bounce off of a subject and return to the sensor. With this information, more accurate depth measurements can be calculated leading to improved AR capabilities and enhanced portraits.

We also aren’t sure which models will have support for high-band 5G airwaves. All four iPhone 12 versions should work with sub-6GHz spectrum. These signals travel farther, penetrate structures better, but don’t deliver the kind of download data speeds that users might expect from 5G. That kind of speed could be available from iPhone models compatible with high-band mmWave 5G signals and it isn’t clear whether both “Pro” versions or only the top-of-the-line iPhone 12 Pro Max will have such support.

While rumors about a 120Hz refresh rate for this year’s iPhone models have quieted down with talk that we won’t see this feature until next year, some are stubbornly holding on to hope that the faster refresh rate will make it through to this year’s “Pro” models or at least the iPhone 12 Pro Max. At 120Hz, the display updates 120 times each second which is twice as fast as the standard 60Hz rate. The result is buttery smooth scrolling and game animation. The iPad Pro tablets already feature what Apple calls its 120Hz ProMotion display.

While much of this information won’t be known until Tuesday’s event, the man who already knows what Apple CEO Tim Cook is having for breakfast on June 17th, 2025, has already named the version of the iPhone 12 series that will be most popular. T.F. International’s Ming-Chi Kuo says that the iPhone 12 mini will make up 20% of the units shipped as will the two “Pro” variants. Based on this writer’s fading mathematical prowess (old age, you know), that means the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 will be responsible for 40% of shipped iPhone 12 series models. And since Kuo is equating the number of units shipped with demand for each individual model, the prescient analyst sees the iPhone 12 garnering the most demand among the new 5G phones. He also expects lower demand for the iPhone 12 series during the fourth quarter this year compared with the demand for the iPhone 11 line last year during the same time period. Kuo blames this on the pandemic which has led to the delayed launch of this year’s models.

A tipster said to have a good track record recently posted on China’s micro-blogging site Weibo a rumored release schedule for the upcoming iPhone models. According to this tipster, we expect to see iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro pre-orders start on October 16th with shipments starting on October 23rd. The iPhone 12 mini pre-order period will reportedly start on November 6th with the launch taking place one week later. Last, but certainly not least, iPhone 12 Pro Max pre-orders will supposedly start on November 13th with the phone’s release beginning on November 20th.

While Kuo says that the iPhone 12 will be the most popular of this year’s new lineup, last year the iPhone 11 generated the most sales among the 2019 line.